No significant changes in ore prices were observed in Q3, and the alumina fundamentals remained loose [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 6.24

Futures Market:The overnight most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,915 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,944 yuan/mt, a low of 2,915 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,937 yuan/mt, up 18 yuan/mt or 0.62%, with an open interest of 297,000 lots.

Ore:As of June 25, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.31/mt, down $0.08/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on June 25, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 223.90 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report:On June 25, the total registered alumina warrant volume remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 35,100 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Henan region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 2,701 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Gansu region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Xinjiang region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 32,400 mt.

Overseas Market:As of June 25, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.60/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.19. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,269 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 134.97 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary:

Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, considering the cost of ore, there were new reports of production cuts. The operating capacity of alumina refineries increased and decreased in parallel. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina refineries decreased by 440,000 mt/year MoM to 88.57 million mt/year last week. Spot alumina supplies remained loose. The total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 8,600 mt to 2.655 million mt last week. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot alumina prices are expected to drop back slightly. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises and their profitability.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】